Monday, April 21, 2008

Scorecards for the PA Primary Night

Photo: PA Youth Sign Up for Obama

More Than One
Way To Win
- And Lose!

[Here's a variety of goalposts and scorecards to keep in mind when watching the PA primary returns Tuesday night. --CarlD]

"Once again, Senator Clinton's campaign has resorted to denying both the obvious – and their previous comments – by saying they'd be pleased with a narrow victory in Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

"After enjoying a 20-point lead in the polls and the support of nearly every member of Pennsylvania's political establishment, Senator Clinton needs a blow-out victory on Tuesday to meet expectations. Meanwhile, Senator Obama is pleased with our campaign's progress in building support among Pennsylvania voters of all ages in every corner of the Keystone State and is looking forward to a strong showing on Tuesday night,"

--Pennsylvania's Obama communications director, Leslie Miller.



Bill Clinton: Hillary's "Got To Win A Big Victory. If She Wins A Big, Big Victory In Pennsylvania, I Think It'll Give Her A Real Big Boost Going Into The Next Primaries." After a rare two-day hiatus, Bill Clinton returned to the campaign trail today in Pennsylvania, a state he promised that his family expects to cover "like a wet blanket between now and April 22." The former president again set the bar for his wife's campaign, saying, "She's got to win a big victory" in the Keystone State. "If she wins a big, big victory in Pennsylvania, I think it'll give her a real big boost going into the next primaries," he said in a crowded senior center in this Western Pennsylvania town. [MSNBC, 3/11/08]

WSJ: "Anything Less Than A Double-Digit Victory Could Solidify The Perception" That Obama Is The "Inevitable Nominee." "Anything less than a double-digit victory could solidify the perception that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the inevitable Democratic nominee, sparking a flow of superdelegates to his side." [WSJ, 4/18/08]

Philadelphia Inquirer: "The Consensus With The Political Community" Is That Clinton Has To Win The State By Double Digits "To Be Able To Claim She'd Won It A Way That Matter In The Overall Nomination Struggle." "The consensus within the political community has been that Hillary Rodham Clinton had to take the state big, perhaps by double digits, to be able to claim that she'd won it a way that matters in the overall nomination struggle -- given her deficits in both the delegate race and the overall popular voter." [Philadelphia Inquirer, 4/3/08]

Newsweek: If Clinton Wins By Less Than 10 Points, The "Noise Will Grow Louder For Her To Drop Out." "If Obama upsets Clinton in Pennsylvania on April 22, all sides seem to agree that it's game over. If Clinton wins narrowly—by less than 10 points—the noise will grow louder for her to drop out and crescendo if she loses Indiana." [Newsweek, 4/14/08]

New York Times: Clinton Has To "Swamp" Obama In PA. "Clinton not only has to win Pennsylvania on April 22, she has to swamp Mr. Obama there. And she has to go on and post a convincing win against Mr. Obama in Indiana, a state where the two appear evenly matched." [New York Times, 3/24/08]

Halperin: Clinton Has To Win The Popular Vote By More Than 10.5% And Has To Cut Into Obama's Popular Vote Lead And Meaningfully Slice In Obama's Delegate Lead. "She has to win the popular vote by more than 10.5% or the media will say she didn't beat expectations (and her Ohio margin); She has to cut into Obama's national popular vote lead with a big Pennsylvania popular vote win and high turnout; She has to net enough delegates to meaningfully slice into Obama's lead (or you will hear the Obama campaign yawn loudly)." [The Page, 4/2/08]

The Hill: "Analysts Agree That A Single-Digit Win For Clinton Would Actually Be Viewed As A Loss." "Given the large leads the New York senator held from the time the focus shifted to Pennsylvania, analysts agree that a single-digit win for Clinton would actually be viewed as a loss." [The Hill, 4/1/08]

Shrum: Clinton "Should Win The State By Double Digits—And She Has To." Bob Shrum: "Pennsylvania, the next test, is both ideal ground for this message and a demographic nightmare for Mr. Obama. She should win the state by double digits — and she has to." [Bob Shrum, NYT, 4/4/08]

Sabato: Clinton Needs To Win By "A Landslide" of 10 Percent or More To Have A Chance At Winning The Nomination. "To have any chance, however, Clinton can't merely win Pennsylvania, said [Larry] Sabato. 'She needs a landslide,' normally a victory margin or 10 percent or more, to ignite support in the remaining states, he said." [Star-Ledger, 3/30/08]

Chicago Tribune's Paul West: "Anything Less Than The 10-Point Spread Of Her Ohio Victory Could Well Be Seen As A Setback." "To Remain A Credible Contender," Clinton Needs To Win PA By More Than 10 Points. "To remain a credible contender, she needs to win Pennsylvania, preferably by a substantial margin (anything less than the 10-point spread of her Ohio victory could well be seen as a setback) and then surprise him in several of the May primaries, including North Carolina, the last big state to vote. Former President Bill Clinton has said that his wife needs to run up the score in the remaining primaries to convince superdelegates that she would be the stronger candidate against McCain and deserves their vote." [Chicago Tribune, 3/26/08]

Noam Scheiber: Obama Getting Within 10 Points Of Clinton "Would Be A Moral Victory Of Sorts." "I still don't think he (Obama) can win, but he's got a shot of getting within ten points, which would be a moral victory of sorts." [TNR, 3/28/08]


Rendell: "I Think [Hillary] Can Win By Double Digits." Ed Rendell: "I told you there was no way we were 16 points. We have been outspent somewhere between 3 and 4 to 1. For her to win by 8 points will be terrific. I think she can win by double digits, but for her to win by 7 or 8 points being outspent 4 to 1, guys. That almost never happens in politics." [Fox News, 4/15/08]

Rendell: "We'll Win It Somewhere Between 5 And 9, 5 And 10 Percentage Points." Gov. Ed Rendell: "So I'm saying that we will win this state, but we'll win it somewhere between 5 and 9, 5 and 10 percentage points. But any victory over a man who outspends you 3-to-1 and is a good a campaigner as Barack Obama is, is an impressive victory." [MTP, 4/6/08]

Murtha: Clinton's Going To Win PA By Double Digits. Murtha: Sure. I think he could win Pennsylvania in the end. I think Hillary Clinton's going to win it by a double-digit figure. There is no question in my mind about that. Matthews: Double digits. Murtha: Double digits. [MSNBC, 4/1/08]

Rendell: "I Always Believe That If We Got To Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton Would Carry The State. It's A Very Good State For Her; People Forget It's Really Her Hometown." Rendell: "Well, I always believe that if we got to Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton would carry the state. It's a very good state for her; people forget it's really her hometown. It's where she grew up in the northeast section of the state. She'll do very well there; she and Bill Clinton probably were in southeast Pennsylvania more than any other big city in the country. The Philadelphia area. They contributed to the turnaround of the city of Philadelphia in the '90s. It's the second oldest state in the Union, second only to Florida. The demographics are good, the history is good. She'll do very well." [MSNBC, 3/5/08]

Rep. Allyson Schwartz: "Hillary Clinton Will Carry Pennsylvania." "Hillary Clinton will carry Pennsylvania," Representative Allyson Schwartz, who represents part of northeast Philadelphia and nearby suburbs, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's "Political Capital with Al Hunt." [Bloomberg, 3/7/08]

Clinton Spokesman Mark Nevins: "We Operate From The Assumption That Pennsylvania Is Clinton Country." "We operate from the assumption that Pennsylvania is Clinton country," said Mark Nevins, Clinton's state spokesman. Nevins, who joined the campaign two weeks ago, said Clinton's operation essentially mirrors what Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) had in place four years ago when he beat President Bush in Pennsylvania. "We can build a team here that is unbeatable," Nevins said. "Even if the other side runs more television ads or sends more mailings, they can't beat us on the ground. We've got the support of the people that control the infrastructure here in the state. We've got that institutional structure that can deliver people on Election Day." [Washington Post, 3/7/08]


American Leadership Project Has Spent $450K On TV Advertising For Clinton. "The American Leadership Project, a 527 group supportive of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton that recently began broadcasting commercials in Pennsylvania, increased its purchase of television time today in the state. The group had started out with about $250,000 in television advertising, a relatively small amount, in northeastern and central Pennsylvania in the Altoona and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre television markets, according to representatives of the group. Today, it added its commercial that praises Mrs. Clinton on health care to the Pittsburgh market, spending an additional $200,000." [NYT, 4/17/08]

Clinton Is Getting Help From The American Federation Of Teachers And Emily's List, Which Have "Both Spent Heavily On Mailings And Radio Ads. "Clinton advisers said they think that Obama's edge on the airwaves in Pennsylvania has been neutralized by extensive media coverage and that the support of key elected leaders, including Pennsylvania Gov. Edward G. Rendell, will help them offset whatever organizational advantages Obama may have. Clinton is also getting help from the American Federation of Teachers and the women's political group Emily's List, which have both spent heavily on mailings and radio ads in recent days. Aronchick said that calls for Clinton to leave the race have boosted her support." [Washington Post, 4/4/08]

The AFT Spent More Than $300K Already On A Radio Buy And Was Considering A TV Ad. The American Federation of Teachers reported today it has bought more than $329,000 in radio ads to support Democrat Hillary Clinton's presidential bid, and may have a television ad coming soon to compliment the radio buy. [Washington Post, 3/31/08]


Clinton Led Obama By 17 Points 4 Weeks Before The PA Primary According to An Average Of Polls. Clinton leads Obama by 17 percentage points, according to an average of Pennsylvania polls by the website Real Clear Politics, and polls show that most voters have already made up their minds. She has the backing of the popular Gov. Ed Rendell and the mayors of the state's two largest cities, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, not to mention an impressive slew of congressmen, county chairmen and assemblymen, making her unquestionably Pennsylvania's establishment candidate. Clinton has also installed her A-team in the Keystone state. Mary Eisenhower, granddaughter of Dwight D. and a force in Pennsylvania politics, is her state director. Mark Nevins, John Kerry's state director in 2004, is also onboard, as is Nick Clemens, who ran Clinton's campaign in New Hampshire. They have 12 offices open now and expect to soon open another eight. And they have over 200 paid staff in the state. [Time Magazine, 3/25/08]

Survey USA: 6 Weeks Before The PA Primary, Clinton Led Obama By 19 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA that was released on 3/11, Clinton led Obama by 19 points 55% to 36%. [Survey USA, 3/11/06]

Rasmussen: 6 Weeks Before The PA Primary, Clinton Led Obama By 15 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen Reports that was released on 3/6, Clinton led Obama by 15 points 52% to 37%. [Rasmussen Reports, 3/6/08]

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