Monday, April 14, 2008

Last Chance for Clintons

Obama Holds

Edge In Ten

Remaining States

By Tom Hayden

The reason the Clinton forces are so desperate to stop Obama now is that, after Pennsylvania, Obama is likely to win six of the remaining nine primaries and caucuses:

April 22, Pennsylvania, with 181 total delegates
May 3: Guam primary, 8
May 6, Indiana primary, 79
May 6, North Carolina, 110
May 13, West Virginia, 37
May 20, Kentucky primary, 55
May 20, Oregon primary, 62
June 1, Puerto Rico, 63
June 3, Montana primary, 23
June 3, South Dakota primary, 22

TOTAL DELEGATES: 640 in ten remaining states.

Obama certainly will win North Carolina, Oregon, and Montana, with 195 total delegates at stake. His chances look good in Guam, Indiana and South Dakota with 109.

Clinton will have to SWEEP Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico, with 336 delegates, which is highly unlikely – and even then she will trail in the delegate count.

All Obama needs to do is not self-destruct, and stay in the 40-percent where Clinton wins. My prediction: Obama wins six of the remaining ten, gets his share in the others, and stays on top in popular vote, delegate vote, and primaries/caucuses won.

The question is what the Clintons will do in the face of this threat to their return to power.

Rather than go gracefully, I expect there will be more to come. Obama’s great strength is also a weakness, that he cannot go negative. Progressives will have to take up the task of criticizing the Clintons on Iraq, NAFTA, and issues that matter in the remaining states.

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